Source: Mstyslav Chernov/Wikimedia Commons
Should you be worried about the new COVID strains originating in the UK, South Africa, and elsewhere, and recently identified in the US?
The media, experts, and officials have focused on concerns about vaccine effectiveness. While some legitimate concerns exist that our vaccines might be 10-20% less effective against the new strains, this small difference is far less worrying than the primary difference we’ve observed in the new strains: they’re much more infectious.
Unfortunately, the implications of their infectiousness has received little news coverage. In fact, some officials claim there’s no cause for alarm about the new strains.
Are the New Strains Really More Infectious?
Researchers describe the UK strain as anywhere from 56% to 70% more infectious, and the South African strain even more infectious.The new UK variant quickly came to dominate the old strain of COVID in Southeast England, going from less than 1% of all tested samples at the start of November to over two-thirds by mid-December.
To corroborate this research, we can compare new daily COVID cases per million people over the last several weeks in the UK, South Africa, US, Canada, Italy, and France.
Source: Global Change Data Lab/Creative Common
Image courtesy of Our World In Data
Only the UK and South Africa have seen a major spike. The UK’s numbers doubled over two weeks from 240 on December 10 to 506 on December 24; South Africa’s case numbers similarly doubled in that period from 86 to 182. Given no obvious policy changes or other viable explanations, the new COVID variants are almost certainly to blame.
Why We Ignore Slow-Moving Train Wrecks
Our minds aren’t well adapted to processing the implications of these seemingly-abstract numbers. We fall into dangerous judgment errors that scholars in cognitive neuroscience, psychology, and behavioral economics like myself call cognitive biases.
We suffer from the tendency to focus on the short term, and minimize the importance of longer-term outcomes. Known as hyperbolic discounting, this cognitive bias causes us to underestimate the eventual impacts of clear trends, such as a more infectious strain of COVID.
The normalcy bias results in us feeling that things will generally keep going as they have been — normally. As a result, we underestimate drastically both the likelihood of a serious disruption occurring and the impact of one if it does occur, such as a novel variant.
When we develop plans, we feel that the future will follow our plan. That mental blindspot, the planning fallacy, threatens our ability to prepare effectively for and pivot quickly when facing risks and problems, such as the new strains.
The Implications of Much Higher Infectiousness
The new strains likely arrived here by mid-November, with hundreds of probable cases by now. Based on the timeline in the UK and South Africa, the new variants will become predominant here by March or April.
The US has maintained a daily new case count of just over 200,000 from December 10 to December 24. Imagine what happens when this starts shooting up rapidly as the new strains start to overtake the old strains, eventually doubling every two weeks when the new variants become predominant!
Hospital systems in California, Texas, and other states are already overwhelmed. The terrible March outbreak in New York City will seem like a summer shower compared to the upcoming tsunami that will flood our medical systems. Moreover, the surge will undoubtedly cause major supply shortages and hammer industries such as travel and hospitality.
Might vaccines help? Not until the summer at the earliest, due to the timing of the rollout.
What about government lockdowns? Not likely. The extreme politicization, widespread protests, and severe economic pain from lockdowns make politicians very reluctant to impose the kind of severe lockdown necessary to fight the new strains. Even if some do, mass public noncompliance will probably make lockdowns ineffective.
What Can You Do?
For yourself as a private citizen and your household, change your plans:
- Prepare for months of mass supply chain disruptions by getting non-perishable supplies of consumables, using online sources that won’t empty store shelves for others
- Prepare for lack of access to emergency medical care by minimizing risky activities such as skiing or substantial household repairs, especially in the spring
- Take steps right now to get into strict pandemic lockdown for your household until you all get vaccines
- To the extent possible, insist on working from home, or invest in a career transition to permit work from home
- Communicate to your friends and family about the new strains and encourage them to take steps to protect themselves until they have vaccines
- Protect the more vulnerable, such as by taking extra precautions around friends and family members over 60 or those with illnesses that make them more vulnerable to COVID such as diabetes
- Be ready to deal with other people making poor decisions, and take whatever steps you need to address such problems
- Prepare psychologically for the tragedy of massive deaths as our hospitals get overwhelmed
If you’re a leader, prepare your team:
- Communicate to them about the new strains and encourage them to take the steps above to protect their households
- Strongly encourage your employees to take advantage of any mental health resources you offer to prepare for the trauma of mass deaths
- Coordinate with your HR on how to compensate for the much higher likely caseload of COVID in your team and burnout due to trauma caused by mass deaths and ensure cross-training for key positions
- Transition now to your team working from home as much as possible
- Revisit your business continuity plan to prepare for mass disruptions in the Spring and Summer
- Prepare for major disruptions to your supply chains and service providers, as well as travel disruptions and event cancellations
- By taking all of these steps early, you will have a major competitive advantage, so get ready to use the consequences of this competitive advantage to seize market share from your competitors who fail to prepare
We’re in for a world of pain this Spring and early Summer. It may feel unreal, but that’s simply our cognitive biases telling us that, just like they did early in the pandemic. Don’t be caught off guard, again, by ignoring this warning.